A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
